Wednesday, August 17, 2011

$ALXA Technical Analysis: waiting for the FDA reply

$ALXA started it's run-up early on Dec. 2010 from $0.90 to double and reach the $1.80 point on 03/30 and the highest point $1.91 on 06/30 enjoying the hype of the resubmission.
During the run-up stage we can see on the chart, the technical correction twice that had a good support of the uptrend line (purple line) .
The last markets sell-off hit $ALXA too...but it dropped very fast breaking down all the support levels...we can see that the strong suppprt @ $1.52 with the uptrend line & the horizontal line pause the drop for 5 trading days...but the power of the markets and the crowd over selling all the biotech sector hit $ALXA again to break down the $1.52 support, following with the next one @ $1.38 and the downtren line that supposed to use as a support , but all failed till the last one @ $1.15....

Do you think that this support will hold...IMHO the situation in the US markets have a big effect on this stock, and the Catalyst of the resubmission was on Aug. 05th, so $ALXA expecting the FDA reply on 14 days that lead us to the Aug. 19th, if the FDA accept the resubmission, they will give them the classification of the review, and most likely it will be Class-II with 6 months review period.

In a usual markets condition, the price would be in the highest levels, anticipating the FDA decision...and usually we see a "sell the news" action and profit taking, but in days & markets oversold like this days, there will be no sell-off as most the short term traders are out of this trade, we might see a spike toward the next resistant line around $1.38, but then it will fade as the 6 months is a long period for the ST traders, it might be a good point for the LT investors, but 6 months with no other catalyst or action during this period will put a pressure  on the price, it will be a very good to check it back 3 months ahead of the new PDUFA date.

Many traders have the same issue with $PLX, as they are waiting for the FDA reply with Class-II review most likely too...but with $PLX it's different situation, as for Protalix there is 2 other catalyst waiting very close during the Q4, as they will have the European & the Brazilian decision during the end of Oct - Nov 2011, so the price this days backed in the Class-II decision and looking for the next catalyst.

Disclosure: No Position in ALXA

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