Thursday, January 19, 2012

$CLSN in a Consolidation mode & a Volatility Squeeze, time to start a position?

$CLSN dropped very hard after the positive data announced on Nov. 2011, the DMC  recommend to continue and complete Phase III HEAT study of ThermoDox in Primary Liver Cancer as planed, while the investors was looking for halt.
Celsion's Phase III HEAT Study, a multinational, double-blind, placebo-controlled, pivotal study of ThermoDox® in combination with radio frequency ablation (RFA) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) or primary liver cancer, has completed a planned interim analysis for safety, efficacy and futility and unanimously recommended that the study continue to its final analysis as planned. The DMC evaluated data from 613 patients in its review, which was conducted following the realization of 219 progression-free survival (PFS) events within the study population. A total of 380 events of progression are required to reach the planned final analysis of the study.

CLSN dropped from the high $3.84 on Nov 7, 2011 all the way down to find a new support area around the $1.65 point, just above a long term horizontal support line @ $1.60
Start looking  interesting at those levels, and I start tweeting about the support, and finished the 2011 year by starting first position @ $1.68, in few days we saw a nice uptrend till the first resistance point @ $1.98 (as I posted took profit @ $1.93).

The price reach the support zone again to create a double bottom, and we can see in the chart the consolidation and the Volatility Squeeze in this area with lots of a positive signs just to load the boat again @ $1.66

First look at the MACD & the RSI both are in a positive divergence, the Stochastics start turning around to  cross above the 20 level, and the most powerful sign is the Volatility squeeze and the Bollinger bands get vertical and very close to each other, that give the sign of a close powerful move, and the positive divergence give me the feeling that the move is upward.

It's looking as a good time to start the position here around $1.70, as the chances are much bigger than the risk, the stop loss can be few points under the support line $1.60, while the uptrend is huge, as the first resistance will be around $1.98 again, then will visit $2.31

Keep watching this trade, and use a stop loss in case and the trade went in the wrong direction...

For more information about CLSN you must visit the #1 blog with every piece of data that you will need about Celsion, well maintained by my friend Siavoche, and updated with all the news around.

Disclosure : Long $CLSN


Wednesday, November 30, 2011

$SPX The SP-500 bouncing from the Fibo 61.8 correction

Lots of pressure was in the markets, we had a consecutive 7 red days, some traders start looking again for the double dip, some get bearish and went short or sold and step away from the markets..

The Fibonacci correction is a healthy correction for every security or the markets after a long run up, we can see that the Fibo 61.8 used as a support, holding the price around 1,158, creating a reversal candle stick (Inverted Hammer) , and complete the reversal with a long green candle (Marubozu candle stick) to give the sign for the new uptrend.

Look at the indicators too, the Stochastics & the RSI was deep in the oversold zone, both changed direction  to support the new uptrend breaking up the 50MA , now looking for the 200MA as a target price.

Today the price will find a resistance at the long period uptrend line (Green line) around 1,240 and after that will attack the 1,258 resistance line and very close to the 200MA.

If the price fail to breakup the 1240 point, we can see a technical correction for the last move, and we can see the price touching again the 1200 point, just before keep the real uptrend.
Breaking down the 1200 point will change the direction and I have to recheck the charts again

Have a nice trading week

Monday, October 17, 2011

$YMI Trading in a falling wedge

$YMI trading in a falling wedge, we can see the volatility squeeze and consolidation through the Bollinger bands that get horizontal and very close to each other, the breakout of the upper band and the downtrend line (cyan) will lead for a wild breakout and uptrend toward the weekly resistance point @ $2.55 & the 200MA.
Meanwhile the price trading side-way and have to deal with the 50MA too, we might see recheck of the lower band before the breakout as the Stochastic start turning down from the overbought zone and should clear out, in the other side we can see a positive divergence in the RSI & MACD.

For the guys that already holding, keep holding as the price will start moving as we get close to Dec 2011 where the company expects to report final efficacy data from P3 adult brain cancer (glioma) trial till year end, and is enrolling patients in ongoing P2B/3 trial for pancreatic cancer

The second catalyst is CYT387 (a JAK1 / JAK2 Kinase Inhibitor) YMI Expects to report data from expanded group of patients (166 enrolled) in ongoing P1/2 trial for patients w/ myelofibrosis in DEC 2011 (expected at ASH mtg Dec 10-13), on 9/28/11 enrolled first patients in P2 trial to evaluate twice-daily (BID) dosing, results expected 4Q12

For the guys that it's only in the watching list, Breaking out the upper falling wedge line with a large volume and closing above will be a buying point.

Disclosure: no position yet.

Thursday, October 13, 2011

$AVNR Breaking out ascending triangle

$AVNR Breaking out ascending triangle 3 days ago with large volume, it just started day earlier by breaking out the 50MA too...after the breaking out, the price usually testing back the line that used as a resistance line and supposed to use as a support this time around $3.09
This retrace created a "Bull Flag" , breaking out this flag will gave us a long run up, as long as the flag pole, but braking down the $3.09 point might start a technical correction for the last uptrend between $3.00 to $2.80 as Fibonacci levels.

Daily Chart

Looking at the intraday chart 15min we can see the creation of the bull flag...and the volume contraction with a positive momentum

Start a position @ $3.10 with a close stop lose

Thursday, October 6, 2011

$PLX : Volatility Squeeze, looking for the break out

$PLX Technically looks very interesting, the Bollinger bands became horizental and very close to each one, (Volatility Squeeze) and we can see a very clear positive divergence in both the MACD and the RSI, beside the expansion of the volume during the up days and contraction in the down days, give us the clue of accumulation.

Protalix have a several catalyst, First, the PDUFA date on 02/01/2012, but have major catalyst during this period, as the company have to reply to the EMA (Europe) 120 day question and will be submitted during October as the IR told me last week, the management took a long time to reply to EMA 120 day question from April, I think it was smart and safer move to synchronize EMA data with FDA data.

After PLX submits the 120 day questions – EMA has 2 months to review and then comes back to PLX with a second set of questions (called 180 day questions as it's 180 days from filling).  Protalix then responds and should hear shortly after that on a recommendation by CHMP.  
The Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) is responsible for preparing the Agency's opinions on all questions concerning medicines for human use.
Notice of formal approval would then follow the CHMP recommendation (assuming positive). and can be done during Dec 2011 or early Jan 2012.

Third catalyst is the Brazilian approval that could happened at any time (very close).

Fourth Catalyst is the Investigational New Drug (IND) Application for phase I/II clinical trial in Fabry disease will be submitted before the end of the year as noted by the CFO Mr. Yossi Maimon at Jefferies & Co. Global Healthcare Conference-UK, held on September 27, 2011, he mentioned that the FDA encourage PLX to submit an IND for phase I/II directly in's bio better product.

For the safest trade, start position after breaking out the upper Bollinger band.

Disclosure: Long $PLX

Daily Chart

Monday, October 3, 2011

$TZA & $TNA holders are fighting for Direction..$IMW is the leader

$IWM have a "Descending Triangle", Lower highs and lower lows...
Breaking down the support line will be a huge short for the Russel 2000 Index...TZA & TNA holders watch it

In the other side, the RSI & MACD with a positive divergence!!!
Who is gonna win the battle

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

$CBRX: Trading within horizontal channel


The price breakout the channel with a long candle and large volume
The price reach the second target as it touched the resistance line @ $2.71 breakout but close below @ $2.70....
It was a very nice runup as written in the Technical Analysis books....
The momentum still very strong, the price might get some correction next week, it will be a nice to load more shares if it retreat to test back the upper channel line around $2.48

Enjoy the ride

Joe Gantoss

click the chart to enlarge

$CBRX Columbia Laboratories, Inc. - PDUFA date of February 26, 2012 for PROCHIEVE for the reduction of risk of preterm birth in women with short uterine cervical length in the mid-trimester of pregnancy.
The shares price dropped hard with the markets, but the pressure started after the NDA acceptance by the FDA as regular review 10 months and not a priority review as Columbia has voluntarily withdrawn its request for priority review.

We can see at the daily chart that it start trading in a horizontal channel between  $1.95 & $2.50 , also the Bollinger bands get closer, tight  & horizontal too while the RSI & the MACD are in a positive divergence and the Stochastics prepare to leave the oversold area and start a new move...
We saw yesterday the price bouncing back from the support line creating a "Bullish Hammer" at a support zone...that's a good sign as the buyers are coming back and buy the dip.

Start a Position @ $2.00 looking to recheck the upper channel line, with stop loss few points below the support line @1.95

Doubled the position @ $1.95
It might be a good start position as a the catalyst of $CBRX is 4 month away
PDUFA date02/26

Disclosure: Long $CBRX

Daily Chart