Tuesday, September 27, 2011

$CBRX: Trading within horizontal channel

UPDATE OCT. 15

The price breakout the channel with a long candle and large volume
The price reach the second target as it touched the resistance line @ $2.71 breakout but close below @ $2.70....
It was a very nice runup as written in the Technical Analysis books....
The momentum still very strong, the price might get some correction next week, it will be a nice to load more shares if it retreat to test back the upper channel line around $2.48


Enjoy the ride

Joe Gantoss

click the chart to enlarge













$CBRX Columbia Laboratories, Inc. - PDUFA date of February 26, 2012 for PROCHIEVE for the reduction of risk of preterm birth in women with short uterine cervical length in the mid-trimester of pregnancy.
The shares price dropped hard with the markets, but the pressure started after the NDA acceptance by the FDA as regular review 10 months and not a priority review as Columbia has voluntarily withdrawn its request for priority review.

We can see at the daily chart that it start trading in a horizontal channel between  $1.95 & $2.50 , also the Bollinger bands get closer, tight  & horizontal too while the RSI & the MACD are in a positive divergence and the Stochastics prepare to leave the oversold area and start a new move...
We saw yesterday the price bouncing back from the support line creating a "Bullish Hammer" at a support zone...that's a good sign as the buyers are coming back and buy the dip.

Start a Position @ $2.00 looking to recheck the upper channel line, with stop loss few points below the support line @1.95

Doubled the position @ $1.95
It might be a good start position as a the catalyst of $CBRX is 4 month away
PDUFA date02/26

Disclosure: Long $CBRX

Daily Chart


Friday, September 23, 2011

$CLSN: Just around an important support point

$CLSN get hammered as the markets did the same this week...
Just a reminder from my last TA :

As we are in a bearish markets, any large decline in the markets might put pressure at the price of CLSN too, so in the other side we have to watch the support line @ $3.50 and the 50MA...sliding below those points would cancel the bull pennant pattern.

The price breakdown those support points starting with the $3.50 then the 50MA and the well known $3.10 point...we can see the price just sliding down and touching the downtrend line (brown line) all the way down.

The new support is the 200MA that used several times in the past as a real support, we can see the price action around the 200MA bouncing up from it...Today we see a positive day with a green and bullish engulfing pattern, we can see the RSI just turning up, but need to breakup the 30 line...the same with the stochastics at the oversold zone...If the 200MA didn't hold so we can see the price heading to the next strong support @ $2.71 ...
If the problems with Greece and the European union have some positive news, so we can see the price running up to test back the $3.10 point...
keep watching closely...

Disclosure : Long $CLSN

daily Chart






Tuesday, September 20, 2011

$AMRN: Very close for the next move

We can see the price consolidation during the last month, the price found a base and support @ the horizontal support line $9.66$ bouncing from the support last month and creating an uptrend wedge (cyan lines).

Now the price have a big resistance and trying to breakup the downtrend line (huge downtrend channel) that using as a resistance line (white) since  05/31 @ the high $19.87

The RSI and the MACD are in a positive divergence too, convincing me that the breakup is very close.

Disclosure: Long $AMRN

Daily Chart

$PLX: Breaking up the wedge might give a real uptrend

$PLX, we can see the price breaking up the upper trend line of the wedge, but we have to wait till the markets closing to see if the price could close above the line, and at least close above $4.71 point, that will be a bullish sign.

The indicators was bullish during the last trading month, we can see the MACD & the RSI trending up during the wedge formation and we can see the volume decrease, we call it a "price consolidation", but we need to see increasing volume today and the coming days to insure the breakout.
If  we don't see a widening in the volume, so I think that we might have a technical correction for the last trend.
The catalyst for the last price action was the letter that Genzyme sent to the health provider indicating the new shortage of the drug supply for the Gaucher patients, this will be a good reason to push the FDA for approval a third supplier for the Gaucher drug, that's $PLX favor
During this shortage, Prptalix will deal with the European & Brazilian approval too in Q4, as my calculation the approval decision in Europe will come during November this year, and the European markets will be targeted with $PFE the worldwide marketing partner (excluding Israel) and can compete with Genzyme & Shire with a aggressive prices as the coast of the production in $PLX technology is significantly cheaper than the both competitors.

keep watching closely..
Disclosure: Long PLX

Daily Chart

Friday, September 16, 2011

$PLX: is the new shotage in Genzyme will benefit Protalix

Genzyme sent a letter about short supply

Genzyme Sanofi company with it;s main orphan drug, sent again a letter about its short supply of Cerezyme that used as a drug to treat the Gauche patients again.
In a letter to health care providers sent on Sep 13, 2011, Genzyme said adult patients would probably receive only one dose a month instead of the usual two, from October through January.

  • We would like to provide an update regarding our expectations for supply of Cerezyme in the U.S. A temporary decrease in Cerezyme yields, combined with changes to our product release processes and procedures that lengthen the overall time it takes to release Cerezyme require us to change our supply projections for the next four months starting October, 2011.
    Changes to Cerezyme availability will be felt globally. Delays in shipments will likely affect patients and some adjustment to individual treatment plans may be necessary.

The drug which costs around $250,000 a year, treats Gaucher disease, a rare inherited enzyme deficiency.
In June 2009 Genzyme was forced to temporarily close its Boston's factory, because of viral contamination. It did not restore full supplies of Cerezyme until January of this year, much later than it initially expected.
The main competitor for the Gauche drug supply is Shire’s Vpriv that approved by the FDA last year but they are limited with a supply to 1000 patients, while there is 5500 patients in the world that treated with Gauche drugs from Genzyme, Shire, and rest with Protlaix (PLX) drug Uplyso  taliglucerase alfa that still waiting for the FDA approval .
I think that this shortage will encourage the FDA to approve PLX, as this orphan drug need more supply to rely on as this decease is a life threatening, and the FDA knows that those shortage with Cerezyme might be for a longer periods.

  • One possible beneficiary is Protalix BioTherapeutics, according to Wells Fargo Securities analyst Brian Abrahams. In an investor note, he writes that with the Cerezyme shortage “shortage occurring in the months ahead of the February PDUFA date for PLX taliglucerase, this should highlight to the FDA the need for an additional enzyme supplier and perhaps increase the likelihood of approval.”

Many believed that Taliglucerase Alfa had a shot on obtaining FDA approval (one prime example was Oppenheimer’s equity research on PLX), but on February 25, 2011, the FDA issued a Complete Response Letter (CRL) regarding the company’s NDA for Taliglucerase Alfa. A CRL is issued by the FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research when the review of a file is completed and questions remain that precludes the approval of the NDA in its current form. The main questions raised by the FDA regarding the NDA related to the clinical and CMC sections.  In the clinical section of the CRL, the FDA requested additional data from the ongoing switchover trial and the long-term extension trial. At the time the NDA was submitted, full data from these trials were not available.  In the CMC section of the CRL, the FDA requested information regarding testing specifications and assay validation. The FDA did not however request additional clinical studies in the CRL.
One thing to note is that the marketing applications filed in the European Union, Brazil and Australia include certain data now being requested by the FDA in the CRL . These applications (the marketing applications) were submitted after filing the NDA, during which Protalix had collected additional data from these ongoing trials.

Form the Technical side, we can see that $PLX is trading in a "Positive Divergence" in the past few weeks, as the price drop but the momentum is gaining all the time, just looking @ the MACD & RSI we can see the positive divergence very clear, and the volume is decreasing in the down days...that's show a price consolidation that will lead for a new uptrend in the near future

Don't forget that beside the main catalyst of the FDA approval as the PDUFA date on Feb 01, 2012...but meanwhile, $PLX have 2 other important catalyst set for Q4, the EU & Brazilian approval for Taligluceraee Alfa that could take the price for a new run-up even before the FDA approval.

Look at the channel breakup for a new trend, the price should breakup the 20MA too then the 50MA waiting around the $5.40 point as a resistance too...


Disclosure: Long $PLX
Daily Chart

Sunday, September 11, 2011

$CLSN: Price consolidation

As I wrote on my last TA on Aug 31st CLSN had lots resistance points.

This area is very complicated, full of support & resistance points, the main resistance now is the uptrend line that used as a support for a long period, and these days change his role and might used as a resistance line (the green line) we can see that the price break out the line, but retreat and close below the line. We might see a correction and recheck the $3.50 line that supposed to use as a support line this time, one more point is the price went out from the upper Bollinger Band, and might get some pressure to get back inside the bands, in the other side, breaking out the uptrend line will find another resistance point @ $3.87

The price did retreat and check the $3.50 and find a good support with the 50MA (Blue Line) too, bouncing back and close above the $3.50 resistance line...we can see a price consolidation creating a Bullish Pennant pattern, while the $SPX found in a bearish mode....That's a bullish sign for $CLSN, and we can see that the volume decreased within the pennant sign for the consolidation.

Pennants are short-term continuation patterns that mark a small consolidation before the previous move resumes. These patterns are usually preceded by a sharp advance or decline with heavy volume, and mark a mid-point of the move.
Breaking up the upper line (white) will give us a technically move that we can calculate it as the flagpole length of about $0.75 that might take the price after the breakup to $4.50 at least, but we have to watch the volume...Volume should be heavy during the breakup, An expansion of volume on the resistance break lends credence to the validity of the formation and the likelihood of continuation.

As we are in a bearish markets, any large decline in the markets might put pressure at the price of CLSN too, so in the other side we have to watch the support line @ $3.50 and the 50MA...sliding below those points would cancel the bull pennant pattern.

Disclosure: Long CLSN
Daily Chart



Friday, September 9, 2011

$TZA: The Small Cap indicator - Inverse H&S


The markets are trading within a Flag pattern in the past month, most of the indices are in a short term uptrend channel , most of the technician believes it's mostly a "Bear Flag"... breaking down the lower line will trigger a big downtrend.
$TZA is a Small Cap Bear 3X and show us the strength of the bears.
If we look at the 1 hour chart, we can see a very nice Inverse Head & Shoulders bearish pattern..

For the traders that are not using a Technical Analysis. here is the definition of Inverse H&S:

A chart pattern used in technical analysis to predict the reversal of a current downtrend. This pattern is identified when the price action of a security meets the following characteristics: 

1. The price falls to a trough and then rises. 
2. The price falls below the former trough and then rises again. 
3. Finally, the price falls again, but not as far as the second trough. 

Once the final trough is made, the price heads upward toward the resistance found near the top of the previous troughs. Investors typically enter into a long position when the price rises above the resistance of the neckline. The first and third trough are considered shoulders, and the second peak forms the head
 

If we look at the chart below, we can see the Head & Shoulders with the Blue lines...if the price of $TZA breakup the Neck-Line around $52 with a large volume we can see the Brown Line Scenario for the uptrend, but if the line used as a resistance, we will have the Green Line Scenario testing a new lows and canceling the H&S pattern....
Next week is an important week for the markets, decisions should been taken about the trend...


Have a nice weekend

1hour chart



Thursday, September 8, 2011

$BPAX Technical Analysis: UPDTAE - Trading in an ascending triangle








































$BPAX after the big drop following the markets meltdown, finding support @ the 200MA area.
In the past 4 weeks, we can see a price consolidation creating an Ascending Triangle ,we can see on the daily chart bellow higher lows, as the traders are paying more for the same shares.
The $2.50 horizontal line use as a support / resistance since 2009, and this days we can see a fight around this point too.
The indicators showing a strength as both the MACD & the RSI-14 with a Positive Divergence that gave me the confidence that the direction is upward, is might trade inside the triangle, but breaking up the upper line (white line) will give us a big move upward and we can calculate it as the side of the triangle that will give us a $0.80 at least...so the technical target is $3.60 at least....

Today. the price breakup the $2.50, but we need to see the price after the market closing,  the next point is breaking up the upper line around $2.80.


Update....
Just looking at the chart we can see that the price reach the target and touch the upper trend line of the triangle...with a large volume...that's give us more confidence that the break up is very close...
We might see a profit  taking @ this hights..as lots of technicians put a sell order just points under a resistance points...but, after a small correction we will have the uptrend even faster and will take the price to the next resistance point @ $3.20
I'm still long and waiting for the next step.


Disclosure: Long $BPAX

$BPAX have a close catalyst, BioSante will present at three healthcare conferences in September. The three presentations are as follows:
Wednesday, September 7, 2011 at 9:45 am EDT at the Stifel Nicolaus Healthcare Conference in Boston;
Monday, September 12, 2011 at 1:35 pm EDT at the Rodman & Renshaw Healthcare Conference in New York;
And on September 27, 2011 at 2:00 pm EDT at the JMP Securities Healthcare Conference in New York.

BioSante will provide a company overview at each conference, as well as an update on the LibiGel® (testosterone gel) Phase III clinical development program and planned NDA "new drug application" submission.



Tuesday, September 6, 2011

$BPAX Technical Analysis: Trading in an ascending triangle

$BPAX after the big drop following the markets meltdown, finding support @ the 200MA area.
In the past 4 weeks, we can see a price consolidation creating an Ascending Triangle ,we can see on the daily chart bellow higher lows, as the traders are paying more for the same shares.
The $2.50 horizontal line use as a support / resistance since 2009, and this days we can see a fight around this point too.
The indicators showing a strength as both the MACD & the RSI-14 with a Positive Divergence that gave me the confidence that the direction is upward, is might trade inside the triangle, but breaking up the upper line (white line) will give us a big move upward and we can calculate it as the side of the triangle that will give us a $0.80 at least...so the technical target is $3.60 at least....

Today. the price breakup the $2.50, but we need to see the price after the market closing,  the next point is breaking up the upper line around $2.80.

$BPAX have a close catalyst, BioSante will present at three healthcare conferences in September. The three presentations are as follows:
Wednesday, September 7, 2011 at 9:45 am EDT at the Stifel Nicolaus Healthcare Conference in Boston;
Monday, September 12, 2011 at 1:35 pm EDT at the Rodman & Renshaw Healthcare Conference in New York;
And on September 27, 2011 at 2:00 pm EDT at the JMP Securities Healthcare Conference in New York.

BioSante will provide a company overview at each conference, as well as an update on the LibiGel® (testosterone gel) Phase III clinical development program and planned NDA "new drug application" submission.

Disclosure: Long $BPAX

Daily Chart